Why we Lost, Week 11

The one word that best describes week 11 in the NFL would be mediocre. Don’t get me wrong, there were a few good games and a few good moments (Patriots/Colt’s come to mind). But with all the hype coming into this week and all the expectations that week 10 built, overall this week unfortunately felt a bit flat. Luckily that flatness has lead to some changes including the (unfortunately too late) firing of Brad Childress and watching some teams decide to make a run for it while others give up.

Teams I think about:
Packers: I’ll admit it that I am a Favre fan. He has had a long (some say too long) and glorious career and each game is a new opportunity to play the game he loves. That being said, I’ve never seen a Favre lead team take a beating like they took on Sunday. They were simply outmatched by Green Bay and they strutted. Aaron Rogers wanted to make a statement and I believe the league heard it. I think they might be the best team in the NFL if they continue to dominate on both sides of the ball the way they have been lately despite all their injuries.

Eagles: After all the hype and expectations put on this team by their performance last Monday, it was nice to see this game come back to Earth a bit. But what most people forgot when they saw this game is that the Giants have the number one ranked defense and the number two ranked offense in the NFL. You certainly wouldn’t know it after this game. I don’t think I’ve seen a better played game by a defense… and they still lost and got 27 points scored on them. They tried a strategy that mostly worked for them which was to get Vick to roll to the right. They kept overloading the left side forcing Vick to go to the left or beat them from the pocket. And that he did. It wasn’t the sexiest performance and they even got a strip on him. But he still had a very respectable 258 yards in the air, 34 on the ground and a rushing TD. What the numbers don’t tell you is how well the Giants defense was and that he still beat them. It is still hard not to think of Michael Jordan watching Vick play and I fear Sundays game with the Bears.

Giants: Poor Giants. Eli made a crucial mistake on a slide that cost them the game and it was frankly just stupid. What is much more disconcerting is that they lost Steve Smith for a while and just lost their super star Nicks for a few weeks. Eli is now going to be tested like his brother and that Rivers guy with a new receiving core and I’m not sure he has what it takes to turn nobodies into winners. Speaking of which…
Chargers: I really hate Rivers. He tends to flip out too much for my liking and I’ve blamed him once or twice for some costly mistakes late in the fourth that has cost him some games. That being said, you don’t have to like the guy to be extraordinarily impressed with how he’s been playing without anyone he normally plays with. Jackson, Gates, Naanee, Floyed, now Crayton is out with a wrist injury, even Gates’ backup, McMicheal is out. I’ve never seen anyone singlehandedly produce so many points with people who just walked onto the team last week. It’s gotten pretty absurd and he just keeps on rolling with it. Also Kaeding is back so yay.

Bears: Or should I say the Peppers club. He is starting to become the most important player on that team. Urlacher has returned to form and their defense is dominating. I am really curious to see what they cook up for Vick this week. The defenses amazing play has almost made everyone forget how bad their offense has been playing. While they have improved the past two weeks, it was another decision making nightmare on Thursday with questionable red zone decisions leading to only one TD in a game that they should have put at least three up. With the Eagles D playing really well, lets just say I have concerns about this week.

Tampa Bay: They are a football team. Week after week, they continue to play well and surprise people. This week? Shut out. They completely shut down the 49ers offense. I think they make it to the post season and surprise a lot of people in the process.

New England: Coaching wins football games. Each week it feels like we are watching a different team. They adapt to their opponents so well. If they need to put on an air show, they put up an air show like in Pitt. If they need a more balanced approach like against Indy, they give us balance. They are impressive and will continue to impress as the season continues.

Bills: Strength through adversity. While they might not be ready to be made into a TV movie, I love how they keep fighting week after week. Same could be said of the Lions but the Bills are winning and they keep putting the points on the board against foes who keep underestimating them.

Lombardi: I am writing this from NYC after seeing the play Lombardi on Broadway. It was spectacular. I really enjoyed it and was impressed with the writing. They seemed to really capture the essence of not only Vince but his wife as well and really got to the heart of what made him strive for victory day in and day out. I believe I better understand what makes him extraordinary and at the same time what made him a man. Strongly recommend it for anyone in NYC over the next few months.

Things that make me sad:
-Cincinnati. Everything about that place is making me sad. Between getting thwomped by the Bills on their home turf after playing three quarters and T.O. coming out and saying Revis is just an average corner, nothing good is happening there. The Jets are going to simply make them irrelevant.
-Injuries. It is getting out of hand. San Diego is absurd right now. Indy not much better and the hits just keep on coming. Something has to be done and expanding the season isn’t it.
-Favre: The man who always fights till the bitter end has given up (or his team has)
-49ers. So much for their resurgence
-Bye Bye parity. Not gone completely but the sad are getting sadder

Things that make me believe there is hope:
-Bills and Lions. Love how they fight. They are the anti Cincinnati. They win. They lose, It doesn’t matter. They play each down in a vacuum and will soon start to find success.
-Vick. Continues to be impressive.
-Danny Woodhead. This kid is out of control good. Jets must be kicking themselves for letting him go. He is a fighter and if NE continues to win, it will not just be because of a man named Brady.
-Thanksgiving Games.

ReInventing the QB Position

Monday night Michael Vick did something that Joe Montana, Peyton Manning, or Tom Brady have never done but more importantly not built to do. He not only threw for a prolific four touchdowns but also rushed for two in one game. What most of the media has been focusing on are the pure numbers that he is putting up but what is getting lost is the fact that he is reinventing the quarterback position in the NFL.

In the modern day NFL, the quarterback position’s most notable function is to throw the ball to other players down the field. This has not always been the case. In the days of the single wing, the quarterback was traditionally a much more physical runner. As of late, we have seen a small resurgence of the single wing in a formation known as the wildcat that a handful of teams now run as a change up play or a gadget to cause confusion to defenses. However, with the exception of Miami, it is not a major part of anyone’s offense. While Philadelphia takes certain concepts out of the wildcat, they are running something very different.

At six feet tall and two hundred fifteen pounds, Michael Vick is one of the more physical quarterbacks in the NFL. But the two things that separate him are his arm strength and his speed. While being a good left-handed quarterback in the NFL isn’t unheard of, what is more unusual is the laser like almost side arm that Vick uses to get the ball down the field. This has allowed him to be the most accurate quarterback in the NFL. What is much more impressive is the fact that he hasn’t thrown a single interception all year. The key to Philadelphia’s offense though is the reverse logic of being more effective the farther back from the line of scrimmage the play is designed to get.

Most effective plays in the NFL are specifically choreographed to give the quarterback a fixed amount of time in the pocket. A typical play might entail a five step drop in the pocket with three quick reads and if there is no one open, throw the ball away before the quarterback gets sacked. With a player like Vick, the traditional pocket rules don’t apply. Three, five, seven step drops aren’t necessary with his ability to scramble. The first evolution out of this new offense is to roll Vick to the left while his receivers get down the field. If the pocket breaks down and there is a free lane, off he goes. I suspect we will start to see variations of this in the coming weeks involving the right side and getting farther back from the line of scrimmage. Will the Giants have an answer? We shall see.

Why We Lost, Week 10

Back to the Future Week 10 was perhaps the most interesting week in the NFL in quite some time. With two games going into overtime and three more coming close, the parity in the NFL has never been clearer. No division has a dominant team and the difference between first and second is only separated by one game or tied in all divisions. To give you an idea of how strange this is, last year at this time, the Vikings were first in the NFC North at 8-1 and Greenbay was in second at 5-4. Indianapolis and New Orleans were both 9-0 with Atlanta and Houston in second both at 5-4. The Bucks, Rams, Raiders, and Chiefs are all in first or a game out and only had at most two wins at this point last year. The cowboys were 6-3 at this point last year. The Vikings, 8-1. Arian Foster was deep in the bowels of the Texan’s depth chart, Vick was the number 3 QB in Phili, Randy Moss had a lot less frequent flyer miles and the best player in Fantasy Football was whoever was playing the Browns.


Games that make me think there’s hope:
Ravens: 21 – Falcons 26 -- Matt Ryan silenced the questions around who the better 2009 draft QB was throwing for 316 yards and three TDs with no picks going 18-1 in the GA dome. He looked a lot like a young Peyton Manning controlling the line of scrimmage and change the plays on the fly. While it was a back and forth game ending on a controversial Pass Interference non-call on Mr. White, I think most people left that game thinking the Falcons are the better team.

Jets: 26 - Browns: 20 – No Brownie! That’s clearly why they lost. Although I suppose that’s a play you can’t run every week. I continue to be impressed with how they are playing. I know the story this week is proclaiming Sanchez an elite quarterback but I am loving what the Browns are doing. They are looking like the new Jets. Young QB, strong running game and solid defense. Ground and Pound. Jets continue to do what they do and coming up with wins. You have to be impressed with Rex Ryan but I have a strong feeling they will continue to offensive issues that will cost them in the post season. This game should have been won long before it got to OT.

Vikings: 13 - Bears: 27 -- Bear down! Chicago Bears! It was a solid and decisive win for the first time in a while. While the hole may be plugged, I still believe the ship is going down. Why do I say that? The picks just keep on coming. The offense is beginning to take shape but stupid mistakes are still being made a crucial times that have cost us in the past. I didn’t see anything that made me more optimistic regarding the decision making in the red zone. That being said, I have been a little more pleased to see Cutler moving out of the pocket and not just going down after his first read. The O Line is picking it up a bit but still has a little ways to go. Poor Brett. With Berrien out and Camarillo looking like he couldn’t catch syphilis sleeping with Lindsey Lohan, his storied career is coming to a horrible end reminiscent of the movie Skyline.



Games that make me say “eh”
Titans: 17 - Dolphins: 29 -- Randy Moss: 1 Catch. Verdict: Shut up! If you only get one catch fifty minutes into the game, then you don’t have the right to bitch about everything. Chris Johnson was back to form. Although they pulled out the win, the Dolphins O line looked similar to another team’s we all know and love here in Chicago getting two QB’s destroyed for the season. Tyler Thigpen for MVP!

Panthers: 16 - Bucks: 31 -- My how the fallen have grown. Josh Freeman is going to an elite quarterback sooner then we think. The Bucks also discovered their long lost running game Blount breaking out with 91 yards and a TD. Even the old Cadillac was pulled out of mothballs for 62 yards on 5 carries and a TD. I like where this team is going and think they are a lot better then most people think.

Lions: 12 - Bills: 14 -- The Lions’ road woes continue. But on a plus note, yay Bills. Buffalo has a lot to hope for now with their first win of the season. Almost makes you forget about the snow, the ice, CJ Spiller being out for the season and, oh yeah, you live in Buffalo! The Lions record doesn’t speak to the fact that they’ve been in almost every game they’ve played and are becoming a force to be reckoned with… Next year.

Bengals: 17 - Colts: 23 -- The easy story is that the Bengals are done and while that story isn’t wrong, what I found much more interesting and surprising is that Peyton Manning went 20 for 36 185 yards and no TDs no Ints. That’s right, Peyton Manning threw no touchdowns. I know a lot of people have him at the top of the MVP list but with a team with three losses and a game like that, I’m not seeing it. I know he has lost a lot of people but so has everyone. Special Note for T.O. If you give up on a play like that again, you’ll end up with a crappy reality show, be on a team no one watches, and the worst part? You’ll end up living in Cincinnati.



Games I don’t even care about enough to write about:
Squawks: 36 - Cardinals: 18 -- Wow.

Patriots: 39 - Steelers: 26 -- Everyone else been talking about it. Yay coaching. Steelers overrated.

Rams: 20 - 49ers: 23 -- Welcome to almost mattering other Smith.

Cowboys: 33 - Giants 20 -- See what happens when you actually play?

Chiefs: 29 - Broncos: 49 -- You used the wrong finger Haley.



Game of the Week:

Eagles: 59 - Redskins: 28 -- This game’s first play from scrimmage was an 88 yard TD pass to DeSean Jackson. I’ve never seen a half of football (nor has anyone really) that was played more perfectly then this one. Michael Vick is not only putting up insane passing numbers (20 for 28, 333 yards, 4 TDs) and insane rushing numbers (8 for 80 yards and 2 TDs), he is reinventing the QB position. You can’t simply “spy” him as most teams have tried. You need to reinvent the way you play defense. He simply can’t be contained in the pocket. My recommendation? Don’t try. It doesn’t make sense to put 4 people on the line for the defense. I’d rush two up the middle, put 2 linemen just inside the numbers who’s sole job is contain. Keep the spy and keep the other 2 linebackers in the middle, and the two safeties deep. Right now, there is simply no way a traditional defense is going to stop him. If he remains healthy, he will not only be the MVP but shatter all offensive records while doing it. My favorite Stat? 0 picks for the season. He is the anti-Cutler.


Note of the Week

What the hell is going on with kickers this year? I’ve seen more missed field goals this year then I’ve ever seen in the NFL. It is not just this week but it seems like at least two kicks are missed a game and they are often kicks that matter. Look at Jets or the Jags. Both missed kicks that would’ve put their games away and both got lucky. However other teams aren’t so lucky. I wouldn’t be surprised if we start to see more people going for it on fourth because they can’t rely on their kickers to make field goals. That isn’t necessarily bad but it just seems strange since most people think FGs shorter then 40 should be automatic.


Things that make me sad


-The power at the New Medowlands Stadium

-NFL network’s coverage of Thursday Night Football. I counted 15 people in their pregame coverage. Looks like the recession is over with all the people they employ.

-The movie Skyline

-All that Sanchez talk. Matt Ryan looks so much better then him but doesn’t get nearly as much attention (granted he has an extra year under him)

-Detriot’s and Buffalo’s records. These two teams are much better then their records indicate. I love what Detroit does on defense and what Buffallo does on offense… Hmmm. Perhaps instead of moving to Toronto, they should send their offense to Detriot.

-San Diego’s special teams. Don’t think because you were on bye we wouldn’t notice!

-Houston’s Defense is a new level of sad.

-Randy Moss

-Sunday could very likely be Brett Favre’s last game

-NFL network’s calling of Thursday Night Football. Yes, it was that bad.

-18 game schedule: What makes the NFL good is that there are only so many games. Also look at the Vikings and the Colts. Do we really want to watch 3rd and 4th stringers in games that won’t matter because everyone is injured or the best teams are so far ahead of the pack?


Things that give me hope (even if only for a moment):

-Watching Vick play

-L.A’s progress at getting a team. Looks like 2012 is a very real possibility.

-Sundays line-up: GB vs. Min at noon, Colts vs. Patriots at 3, Giants Eagles at 7.

-This new blog

-No more Bye weeks!

-NFLPA’s response to the 18 game season. Don’t think it will help with the CBA but at least they are making reasonable demands and aren’t completely overreaching

-The parity in the league. I love the fact that every game matters. The Browns can beat the Patriots and are a force. The Bills and Lions play like it’s their last game even though they have bad records.


Last Word of Warning

Right now the NFL is in an interesting place. Everyone says that November is the month where the cream rises to the top. I disagree. December is going to matter for the first time in a while a lot more then it has ever had. For those of you planning to go home for Christmas, don’t forget to turn on the TV. Week 17 (Jan 2nd) (all division match ups) could be like a mini playoff weekend because of all the games that are likely to matter for who is going to make the playoffs. The superbowl winners regular season record might be 9-7 or even 8-8 (last year Colts 14-2, Saints 13-3). I may be in the minority but I think that is why the NFL is great this year. It’s anyone’s game (unless of course you are the Seahawks) at the end of November and the parity gives me hope for the remainder of the year.

Welcome... Or not.

Welcome to the Tuesday Morning Cynic. This blog is dedicated to providing analysis for the NFL in an often pessimistic and frank manor. Two featured posts will occur each week focusing on reviewing the previous week in the NFL entitled "Why we Lost, week x" which comes out every Tuesday morning and another entitled "Why we'll Lose, week x" which focuses on previewing the coming week. In the interest of full disclosure, I am from Chicago and a Bears fan so while the focus is on the NFL in general, there may be specific posts focusing on the Bears. If you are interested in writing for the Tuesday Morning Cynic, or have any ideas to improve the site, send me an email at brianbaum@gmail.com or post them in the comments. Have fun and enjoy the site.